| Haight, Mladenoff, Wydeven | Robert G., David J., Adrian P. | Modeling disjunct gray wolf populations in semi-wild landscapes. | 1998 | Conservation Biology 12(4):879-888 |
The paper attempts to define the types of areas and protections needed to sustain a disjunct wolf population. A simulation model was created to predict the effects of different levels of human-caused mortaility in a semi-wild landscape with abundant, well-distributed prey. The landscape included a maximum of 16 territories divided into core and peripheral ranges. Mortality rates in the core range were estimated at 20%. A higher mortality rate of 40% was used in the peripheral range because of human caused deaths. Modeling was performed applying different assumptions about pup and dispersal mortality and immigration. In general, occupancy increased as the number of core sites increased. Modeling experiments predicted that smaller, isolated populations are more likely to go extinct than larger populations. This resulted because fewer dispersers were present to rescue packs with missing breeders or to colonize vacant areas. However immigrants greatly reduced the vulnerability of small populations.
In conclusion, the results suggest that long-term mean levels of wolf mortality and immigration are more important to population survival than annual short-term fluctuations in mortality and dispersal. It is believed that wolves can survive and thrive in these networks, provided that disjunct populations are linked by dispersal, human persecution is not excessive, and prey is abundant.